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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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