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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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