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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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