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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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