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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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