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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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