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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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