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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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