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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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