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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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