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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 08 January 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S CRISIS DEEPENS AS RATES ARE DROPPING TO NEW RECORD LOWS BY THE DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Just when you would think that the dry bulk market is reaching its bottom, even as it has long surpassed all-time lows, each day that passes by at ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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