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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 10 January 16
LNG BUNKERING IN ASIA: FUELING A PROMISING FUTURE? - REED SMITH
The requirement of a mandatory reduction of sulphur content in bunker fuel proposed by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) poses a challe ...
Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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