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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX FALL TOWARD $27;SLIPPED 28.05% YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index has not moved in the past week, averaging $40.12 per ton on last Thursday, according to CS (i) Coal Index ...
Monday, 04 January 16
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP REMAIN FLAT OVER CHRISTMAS & NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 01 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $36.75 PER TON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month but flat week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
COAL PRICES FELL ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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