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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Australian Coal Association
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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