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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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