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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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