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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIG CHINESE COPPER PROCESSORS DEFEND MARGINS THROUGH R&D, SAYS FITCH
Large Chinese copper processors are focusing on higher value-added products and investing in R&D to enhance their technical know-how to maintai ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIMCO LAUNCHES ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE FOR SHIPPING CONTRACTS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: BIMCO, is the world’s largest international shipping association, with 2,200 members in around 130 countries, has now launched ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
We have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the p ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL SUPPLY PRESSURE PUTS INDONESIAN HBA IN FREE FALL
The coal industry is slowly recognizing that, the current coal price level is not a decrease in price, but a change in pricing to corresp ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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