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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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