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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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