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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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