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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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