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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
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