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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
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Showing 2816 to 2820 news of total 6871 |
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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