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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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