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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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