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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 October 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS DOWN 21 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 2014 - EIA
Coal Supply
Lower U.S.’s domestic coal consumption and reduced exports contribute to a forecast decline of 89 million short tons (M ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2015 and more specifically during the summer season has been rather remarkable. 421 v ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE, FALLING ALMOST 7% M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) per t ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LITERATED
The fall in global oil prices over the last one year has been beneficial to the shipping industry. The demand for oil tankers has picked up and the ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS PLUNGE MORE THAN 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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