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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
Monday, 12 October 15
BDI WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPE
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has come back down again this week. The BDI is a benchmark index used to assess the overall cost of moving ...
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil pri ...
Friday, 09 October 15
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2 PERCENT TO 17.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship br ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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