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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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