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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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