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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
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