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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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