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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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