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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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