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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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