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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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