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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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