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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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