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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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