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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIG CHINESE COPPER PROCESSORS DEFEND MARGINS THROUGH R&D, SAYS FITCH
Large Chinese copper processors are focusing on higher value-added products and investing in R&D to enhance their technical know-how to maintai ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIMCO LAUNCHES ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE FOR SHIPPING CONTRACTS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: BIMCO, is the world’s largest international shipping association, with 2,200 members in around 130 countries, has now launched ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
We have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the p ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL SUPPLY PRESSURE PUTS INDONESIAN HBA IN FREE FALL
The coal industry is slowly recognizing that, the current coal price level is not a decrease in price, but a change in pricing to corresp ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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