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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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