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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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