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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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