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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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