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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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