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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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