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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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