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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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