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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 October 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO SEEKS SPOT BITUMINOUS COAL SUPPLIES
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 265,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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