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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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