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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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